对印度能源需求的实证见解:揭示战略政策倡议的弹性动态
Aamir Ahmad Teeli1, Mudaser Ahad Bhat2, Mohammad Subhan3
1Department of Economics, Central University of Tamil Nadu, Thiruvarur, India.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 8, 2024
概括
能源价格显著降低了能源消耗,而GDP和人口增长则增加了能源消耗. 价格弹性呈现出U形趋势,自2000年以来一直在下降,而收入弹性则在1左右稳定.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 了解能源需求弹性对于有效的能源政策至关重要.
- 印度能源密集型发展需要对影响能源消耗的因素进行分析.
- 之前的研究往往缺乏对时间变化的弹性的动态分析.
研究的目的:
- 研究价格和收入弹性对印度能源消费的动态影响.
- 用先进的经济计量技术分析能源需求弹性的时间变化的性质.
- 为决策者提供关于可持续能源转型战略的信息.
主要方法:
- 自动回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型用于短期和长期分析.
- 具有状态空间卡尔曼波器的时变参数技术,用于动态弹性估计.
- 分析印度的能源消耗,人均GDP,人口增长和能源价格.
主要成果:
- 能源价格对消费产生负面影响;人均GDP和人口增长对消费产生积极影响.
- 能源需求的价格弹性呈现出U型模式,到2020年将下降至-0.54.
- 能源需求的收入弹性已经稳定在统一周围,这表明印度正在接近其能源强度-GDP曲线的峰值.
结论:
- 经济增长和人口增长是印度能源需求增长的关键驱动力.
- 随着价格和收入弹性的变化,需要针对能源效率和可持续性制定适应性政策.
- 基于动态弹性见解的有针对性的干预措施可以指导印度向可持续能源系统的过渡.
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