贸易自由化和巴西的总因子生产率:一周的建模
Edivo Oliveira de Almeida1, Julio Vicente Cateia2, William Barbosa3
1Institute of Economics, State University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil.
PloS one
|November 8, 2024
概括
贸易开放在短期和长期两方面都显著提高了总因子生产率 (TFP). 虽然吸收能力没有直接影响TFP,但它和贸易开放性都影响TFP组件.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 总因子生产率 (TFP) 是经济增长的关键驱动力.
- 了解贸易开放对TFP的影响对于政策制定至关重要.
- 吸收能力在调解这种关系中的作用需要研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查贸易开放对TFP的影响.
- 分析吸收能力对TFP组件的影响.
- 检查贸易开放和TFP的短期和长期动态.
主要方法:
- 多变量向量错误纠正模型 (VECM).
- 从1991年12月到2024年3月的每月数据分析.
- 格兰杰因果关系测试用于评估动态关系.
主要成果:
- 贸易开放性显著增加了TFP的26% (短期) 和0.16% (长期).
- 吸收能力对TFP没有显著的直接影响.
- 贸易开放性和吸收能力都被发现是格兰杰导致的TFP组件.
结论:
- 贸易自由化对TFP有积极的影响,需要加强资源效率的政策.
- 对人力资本,ICT和研发的投资可以增强贸易的生产效应.
- 决策者必须考虑其贸易和生产率相关决策的更广泛的经济影响.
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