全球创纪录的复发率表明,表面空气温度和降水极端变得更加广泛和强烈
Rasmus E Benestad1, Cristian Lussana1, Andreas Dobler1
1The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313, Norway.
Science advances
|November 8, 2024
概括
极端炎热的年份在全球变得越来越普遍,特别是在热带地区. 气候模型准确地重现了极端温度,但在预测极端降水方面显示了一些差异.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气分析
- 全球气候模型全球气候模型
背景情况:
- 了解每年极端温度和降雨事件的频率和分布对于评估气候变化影响至关重要.
- 以前的分析已经表明了天气模式的变化,但需要详细研究全球破纪录事件的复发率.
研究的目的:
- 根据创纪录事件的复发率,分析每年极端地表空气温度和降雨量的演变.
- 将研究结果与全球气候模型模拟进行比较,特别是结合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP) 共享社会经济路径2-45 (SSP2-45).
主要方法:
- 分析每年破纪录的地表空气温度和降雨事件的复发率.
- 全球表面积分的计算,每日平均温度超过30°C和40°C.
- 使用来自全球气候模型 (CMIP6 SSP2-45) 的306个运行的多模型组合进行比较.
主要成果:
- 热带地区的年度高温创纪录的复发率最高,与经历了最快变暖的极地地区形成鲜明对比.
- 极端炎热的年份变得越来越频繁和广泛,受到复发率和经历极端温度的表面积增加的支持.
- 降水分析显示了区域差异,一些地区的降水量增加到创纪录的高点,而其他地区的降水量创纪录的低点表明干旱.
结论:
- 在全球范围内,创纪录的高温越来越普遍,热带地区的度显著.
- 全球气候模型 (CMIP6 SSP2-45) 成功地复制了创纪录高温的统计数据,但显示了与极端降水的重新分析数据的差异.
- 气候模型模拟表明了创纪录的年度降水复发率的地理模式的潜在变化.
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