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基于不同情景下的未来气候变量,对文化生态系统服务的分布进行建模
Chang You1, Hongjiao Qu1, Lun Yin2
1School of Ethnology and Sociology, Minzu University of China, Beijing, 100081, China.
Scientific reports
|November 8, 2024
概括
预测文化生态系统服务 (CES) 对气候适应至关重要. 本研究使用气候数据和Maxent模型预测了CES分布,揭示了温度.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对生态系统和人类社会产生重大影响,需要对文化生态系统服务 (CES) 进行预测.
- 之前的研究集中在自然生态系统的变化上,仅限于预测未来的CES.
- 准确的CES预测对于可持续发展政策和资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的气候变化情景下预测文化生态系统服务 (CES) 的空间和时间分布.
- 确定影响CES的关键气候驱动因素.
- 为未来的政策制定,资源管理和气候适应战略提供科学证据.
主要方法:
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP126和SSP585) 情景,结合了具有未来气候变量的兴趣点 (POI) 数据集.
- 使用Maxent模型预测CES的空间和时间分布.
- 分析了气候变量的影响,例如年度平均温度 (Bio1),最热月份的最高温度 (Bio5) 和最潮湿季度的平均温度 (Bio8).
主要成果:
- 预计在SSP126和SSP585情景下,CES值在北部,西部,中部和东北部地区较高,在西南部,南部和东南部地区较低.
- 根据SSP126,预计从2021年至2040年,总CES将增加,从2061年至2080年略有下降.
- 根据SSP585,预计从2021年到2040年,总CES将大幅下降,特别是在贵州,湖南,江和安省. 年平均温度 (Bio1) 与CES正相关,对其分布作出了重大贡献.
结论:
- 该研究揭示了独特的区域特征和CES分布的变化,受气候变化情景的影响.
- 温度,特别是Bio1,Bio5和Bio8显著影响CES预测.
- 这些发现为国家决策,资源管理和气候适应战略提供了关键的科学证据.
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