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摩洛哥地区范围内的长期水气候预测和气候变化情景
Pedro Pérez-Cutillas1, Adil Salhi2
1Department of Geography, University of Murcia, Santo Cristo, 1, 30001, Murcia, Spain.
Journal of environmental management
|November 10, 2024
概括
摩洛哥面临严重的水资源短缺,预测显示到2100年,水产量将大幅下降. 这影响了经济稳定,迫切需要为气候适应性制定水资源管理战略.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 摩洛哥对水资源的了解是过时的和不确定的.
- 准确的评估需要整合最新的共享社会经济路径 (SSP).
- 现有的数据对于有效的战略水资源管理是不够的.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候变化场景下评估摩洛哥的水文动态.
- 为战略水资源管理提供关键见解.
- 用更新的途径弥合当前水资源知识的差距.
主要方法:
- 结合空间分析和流域水文建模的综合方法 (InVEST"水产"模块).
- 利用了合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 的气候变化预测.
- 采用了可信的数据库来查询土地覆盖面,土壤和气候数据.
主要成果:
- 预计到2080年,水产量将在12个主要盆地下降23%至51%,到2100年将下降43%至61%.
- 西北和北方地区,有更高的流水供应,面临最显著的减少.
- 预计到2100年,经济损失将在80亿美元至85亿美元之间,可能会使GDP下降2.8%至17.1%.
结论:
- 供水对不同的气候变化情景非常敏感.
- 摩洛哥的水气候挑战对北非具有重大区域影响.
- 积极的水资源管理战略对于经济稳定和区域性至关重要.
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