汇款对扩张和衰退中的产出产生不对称的影响
Nikeel Nishkar Kumar1, Rajesh Mohnot2
1School of Economics, Finance, and Marketing, College of Business and Law, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
Heliyon
|November 11, 2024
概括
汇款的下降降低了经济扩张期间的经济产出. 然而,增长的汇款在经济衰退期间促进了产出,为政策制定者提供了一个管理经济衰退和扩张的工具.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 汇款乘数对于发展中经济体至关重要.
- 现有的研究可能忽略了汇款的方向影响 (增加或减少).
- 汇款影响的非线性动态尚未得到充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 调查汇款冲击对经济产出的不对称影响.
- 区分经济扩张和经济衰退期间汇款增加与减少的影响.
- 为发展中国家的汇款管理提供政策见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个扩展的非线性自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型.
- 将汇款数据分解为正面和负面冲击.
- 分析了来自前八个接受汇款的发展中国家的数据.
主要成果:
- 汇款的下降会在经济扩张期间对产出产生负面影响.
- 汇款的增加对经济衰退期间的产出产生了积极的影响.
- 汇款冲击表现出不对称的效应,在某些阶段没有显著的输出关联 (例如,扩张中的积极冲击).
结论:
- 政策制定者可以利用汇款来缓解经济衰退,通过实施支持性政策 (例如,降低转移费).
- 在经济扩张期间维持汇款可以帮助缓冲未来的经济衰退.
- 汇款流的方向和阶段显著改变了它们的经济影响.
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