在气候变暖下,美国玉米带前作物的产量效应变化在美国玉米带前作物的产量效应
Junxiong Zhou1, Peng Zhu2, Dan M Kluger3
1Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
Global change biology
|November 12, 2024
概括
农作物轮换可以提高作物产量,但气候变化的影响各不相同. 非生长季节 (NGS) 的变暖减少了玉米的益处,而生长季节 (GS) 的变暖有助于大豆的益处. 未来的旋转仍然可以增加产量.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 农作物轮换对于提高产量和减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 现有的研究忽略了非生长季节 (NGS) 对作物轮换的气候影响.
- 了解全面的气候影响对于适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查生长季节 (GS) 和NGS气候对作物轮换效益的影响.
- 从1999年到2018年,分析美国中西部的玉米-大豆旋转系统.
- 预测气候变暖对作物轮换有效性的未来影响.
主要方法:
- 森林因果分析以估计产量影响.
- 统计建模以评估气候变量影响.
- 使用共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的预测 1-2.6 和 5-8.5 为 2051-2070.
主要成果:
- 农作物轮换使玉米和大豆的产量分别增加了0.96和0.22t/ha.
- NGS变暖减少了玉米旋转的好处;GS变暖增加了大豆旋转的好处.
- 预计的变暖将玉米旋转收益减少6.74% (SSP 1-2.6) 至17.18% (SSP 5-8.5).
- 预计的气候变暖将大豆旋转收益增加8.36% (SSP 1-2.6) 到13.83% (SSP 5-8.5).
结论:
- 尽管对玉米和大豆产生不同的气候影响,但作物轮换仍然有效.
- 广泛采用作物轮换可以显著提高县平均产量.
- 这些发现支持作物轮换作为未来气候情景的关键适应策略.
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