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气候风险保险建模的最新情况和未来
Michiel W Ingels1, W J Wouter Botzen1, Jeroen C J H Aerts1,2
1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|November 12, 2024
概括
气候风险保险模型对于管理不断增加的气候变化损失至关重要. 未来的研究应该集中在开发覆盖更多地区,危险和商业部门的前性模型上.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 保险建模 保险建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加全球损失,使气候风险保险建模变得至关重要.
- 保险模型估计风险,并模拟各种危险的保费和抵免金等参数.
- 气候风险的增加和社会经济发展预计将大大提高未来的保险费.
研究的目的:
- 对气候风险保险建模进行全面的文献审查.
- 确定当前气候风险保险研究中的经验教训和知识差距.
- 引导未来的研究方向,以更有效地评估保险中的气候风险.
主要方法:
- 对气候风险保险建模研究的系统文献综述.
- 分析现有模型,它们的假设和局限性.
- 确定当前研究中代表性不足的领域,如发展中国家,特定危险和商业部门.
主要成果:
- 大多数前性模型显示,气候变化和社会经济因素加剧了未来的风险和保险费.
- 研究建议基于风险的保费来激励适应和公私保险,以更好地分散风险.
- 确定的差距包括发展中国家在保险评估中的代表性不足,非洪水风险和商业部门.
结论:
- 目前的气候风险保险模式需要进一步发展,特别是要纳入未来的气候和社会经济情景.
- 未来的研究应该专注于具有精细空间尺度,更广泛的地理和危险覆盖,以及商业部门的纳入的前性模型.
- 加强保险建模对于适应和减轻气候变化的财务影响至关重要.
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