预测中风对45岁及以上个体的全球影响
Weinv Fan1, Qinghua Ma2, Qiongfeng Guan1
1Department of Neurology, Ningbo No. 2 Hospital, Ningbo, China.
Neuroepidemiology
|November 12, 2024
概括
全球45岁以上的成年人中风发病率正在上升,男性和东亚地区面临更高的负担. 然而,预计死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 将下降.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生流行病学
- 神经学 神经学
- 公共卫生预测 公共卫生预测
背景情况:
- 从1990年到2030年,评估45岁及以上的个人中风的全球负担.
- 专注于关键指标:发病率,死亡率和根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs).
研究的目的:
- 使用先进的统计模型来预测未来的中风负担.
- 分析社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 和中风影响之间的关系.
- 确定中风发病率和结果的重大区域差异.
主要方法:
- 利用了疾病负担预测 (2020-2030年) 的通用添加模型.
- 研究了社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 与整体中风负担之间的相关性.
- 雇佣的曼 - 惠特尼U测试来评估中风影响的区域差异.
主要成果:
- 从2020年到2030年,预计年龄标准化中风发病率 (ASIR) 的增加 (EAPC 1.29%).
- 预计年龄标准化死亡率 (ASDR) (EAPC-1.48%) 和DALYs (EAPC-1.66%) 的预期下降.
- 预计到2030年,男性的ASIR和ASDR会比女性更高. 预计东亚的ASIR最高. 较高的SDI与较低的中风负担相关.
结论:
- 预计中风发病率将上升,特别是在东亚和低SDI地区.
- 预计男性的中风负担将不成比例地更高.
- 尽管发病率上升,但预计死亡率和DALYs将下降.
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