1994年至2022年的北极臭氧时间变化趋势时间序列
1Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, 99600, Sodankylä, Finland. kenneth.nilsen@sgo.fi.
Scientific reports
|November 12, 2024
概括
北极臭氧的恢复仍然难以捉摸,在较低的平流层没有可检测的迹象. 最近的数据甚至表明平流层和热层的负面趋势,强调需要持续监测.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 臭氧层的动力学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 南极平流层臭氧的恢复是显而易见的,但北极的恢复仍然未得到证实,尽管减少了破坏臭氧的物质.
- 对臭氧层的监测对于了解大气变化和潜在的恢复至关重要.
- 之前的研究并没有最终确定北极臭氧恢复趋势.
研究的目的:
- 通过现场测量,在20年的时间内调查北极臭氧的变化趋势.
- 为了确定北极臭氧恢复是否可以在较低的平流层和热层层中检测到.
- 评估近期北极臭氧度趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用动态线性模型 (DLM) 来分析来自六个臭氧探测站的北极臭氧时间序列 (1994-2022年).
- 内置的季节性,外部强迫 (热带气压,北极振荡,热流,PSC体积,太阳辐射流) 和残余相关性.
- 在20年期间推导出时间变化的趋势,以捕捉不断变化的臭氧动态.
主要成果:
- 在北极较低层的平流层中,无法检测到臭氧的恢复.
- 在2017年之前观察到的统计学上显著的正面臭氧趋势在2017年后不存在.
- 2019年以后,在平流层和持续在热带层中发现了北极臭氧的负面和显著趋势.
结论:
- 与南极趋势相反,北极臭氧的恢复目前无法检测到.
- 最近的北极臭氧趋势在平流层和热层都是负面的.
- 持续严格监测北极臭氧对于跟踪大气变化至关重要.
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