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通过对偏差进行调整的重新分析数据,改善了风力发电评估,其中包括在摩洛哥海岸附近的应用
Younes Zekeik1,2, Maria J OrtizBevia3, Francisco J Alvarez-Garcia3
1Climate Physics Group, Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain. younes.zekeik@edu.uah.es.
Scientific reports
|November 12, 2024
概括
偏差调整技术改善了用于风能评估的重新分析的风力数据 (ERA5,MERRA-2). 使用本地观测可以提高准确性,大大减少错误,从而获得更好的风能估计.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源可再生能源是可再生能源.
- 气象学 天气学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 重新分析的风力数据 (例如,ERA5,MERRA-2) 对于风力发电评估至关重要,因为观测数据很少.
- 这些重新分析的数据集包含了不切实际的特征,需要验证和纠正.
- 现有的全球偏差校正风场可能无法完全解决本地偏差.
研究的目的:
- 通过当地观测来验证和提高ERA5和MERRA-2风力数据的准确性,以进行风力发电评估.
- 开发和应用偏差调整 (BA) 技术来重新分析风力场.
- 评估偏差调整的风力数据与未调整和全球调整的数据集的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用线性和概率密度函数测试进行统计验证,将重新分析的数据与摩洛哥附近 (2011-2020) 沿海观测数据进行比较.
- 开发局部偏差调整 (BA) 技术,以创建调整的ERA5-BA和MERRA-2-BA速度场.
- 培训和验证期间用于识别转移功能和评估BA现场表现.
主要成果:
- 在风力发电评估中,ERA5-BA和MERRA-2-BA的表现明显优于其未经调整的同行和WFDE5.
- 使用偏差调整的数据,风力潜力估计的相对误差减少到10%以下.
- 该研究证实了ERA5和MERRA-2数据集中存在偏差.
结论:
- 使用本地观测数据的偏差调整有效地纠正重新分析的风能数据集,以改善风能估计.
- 即使是短暂的观测数据集也可以克服重新分析的风力数据对功率评估的限制.
- 拟议的方法适用于纠正未来的再分析更新.
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