从不完整的人类骨遗骸中估计创伤患病率
Judith Beier1,2, Matteo Santon3, Hannes Rathmann4,5
1DFG Center for Advanced Studies 'Words, Bones, Genes, Tools', University of Tübingen, 72070, Tübingen, Germany. judith.beier@uni-tuebingen.de.
Scientific reports
|November 12, 2024
概括
从不完整的人类骨遗骸中估计创伤患病率是具有挑战性的. 通用线性模型 (GLMs) 提供比传统频率方法更精确的创伤估计,特别是缺少骨数据.
科学领域:
- 生物考古学的生物考古学
- 法医人类学 法医人类学
- 古病理学 古病理学
背景情况:
- 人类骨遗骸上的创伤病变对于重建过去事件和比较创伤患病率至关重要.
- 骨不完整性引入创伤患病率估计中的偏差,通常通过排除不完整标本来解决.
- 排除不完整遗骸对创伤患病率估计的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较常规频率方法的性能与估计创伤患病率的通用线性模型 (GLMs).
- 评估不同程度的骨不完整性如何影响从这两种方法获得的创伤患病率估计.
主要方法:
- 使用法医,临床和考古学背景的经验数据开发了一个模拟框架.
- 使用常规频率方法 (≥75%完整性) 估计创伤患病率,并将完整性作为共同变量纳入GLMs.
- 估计与模拟的头骨样本中已知的创伤患病率进行了比较,数据缺失的程度各不相同.
主要成果:
- 基于GLM的估计表明,与基于频率的估计相比,在所有层次的骨不完整性和样本大小方面都具有更高的精度.
- 基于频率的估计显示,样本之间的相对模式越来越不准确,偶尔无法产生更不完整的估计,特别是在较小的样本中.
- GLMs提供了更可靠的创伤患病率估计,即使缺少了重要的骨数据.
结论:
- 一般化线性模型 (GLMs) 建议使用传统的频率方法来分析缺少数据的骨样本中的创伤患病率.
- 虽然GLM提高了可靠性,但对于广泛不完整的骨样本,这两种方法都不是完全准确的.
- 未来的研究应该专注于开发强大的创伤分析方法,用于高度碎片化的骨组合.
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