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建立和验证用于预测患有急性尾炎的儿童手术后肠粘附的诺姆图
Dezhao Liu1,2, Yuchi Wang2, Liyun Sun1,2
1Graduate School, Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, Jilin, 130000, China.
BMC pediatrics
|November 13, 2024
概括
术后排气时间延迟 (≥55小时) 显著增加了小儿尾切除术后肠附着 (IA) 的风险. 早期恢复肠道功能对于在尾炎手术后预防IA至关重要.
科学领域:
- 儿科手术 儿科手术
- 胃肠道手术 胃肠道手术
- 手术风险评估手术风险评估
背景情况:
- 肠粘附 (IA) 是儿童急性尾炎 (AA) 尾切除术后的常见并发症.
- 准确的风险因素评估对于预防AI和改善患者的治疗结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定和评估多个指标作为儿童AA患者尾切除术后IA的风险因素.
- 开发一个术后AI的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对608名接受尾切除手术的儿科患者进行了回顾性研究.
- 对于IA发生的情况进行一年的随访.
- 单变量和多变量分析,包括二进制物流回归,以选风险因素.
- 基于名ogram的预测模型的开发和验证.
主要成果:
- 确定了关键的风险因素:术后排气时间延长 (≥55小时,OR=14.483),升的前素 (PCT ≥0.9μg/L,OR=8.683),更长的手术时间 (≥100分钟,OR=6.457),尾孔穿 (OR=6.073),C反应蛋白升高 (CRP ≥65 mg/L,OR=3.424),以及诊断得分延长 (DS ≥43小时,OR=3.903).
- 诺米图表显示出高预测效率,在训练组中,曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.960,在测试组中为0.957.
- 在两组中都实现了高灵敏度 (0.898-0.864) 和特异性 (0.905-0.906).
结论:
- 术后排气时间≥55小时是小儿尾切除术后IA的重要风险因素.
- 肠周平静功能的早期恢复对于预防IA至关重要.
- 开发的评分模型为预测术后IA提供了一种新且有效的方法.
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