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一种新的方法来估计最近的成年人死亡率从总结的兄弟姐妹历史
Bruno Masquelier1, Ashira Menashe-Oren2, Georges Reniers3
1Center for Demographic Research, University of Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. bruno.masquelier@uclouvain.be.
Population health metrics
|November 13, 2024
概括
使用汇总兄弟姐妹生存史 (SSH) 的新方法在缺乏死亡登记的国家提供了准确的成年死亡率估计. 这种方法比完全的SSH更快,使最近的死亡率测量成为可能.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 在低收入和中等收入国家,成年人死亡率估计通常依赖于兄弟姐妹生存史 (SSH),因为死亡登记有限.
- 完整的SSH提供了直接的死亡率估计,但收集的数据密集且耗时.
- 需要有效的方法来估计最近的成年人死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证一种新型的间接估计方法,使用简要的兄弟姐妹生存史 (简要的SSH).
- 评估最近成人死亡率测量的总结SSH的准确性和可行性.
主要方法:
- 开发了192个微模拟,涵盖了各种生育和死亡模式.
- 在15-49岁成年人的模拟中,重建了简要的SSH.
- 从已故成年兄弟姐妹的比例计算成年死亡率的转换系数,通过154个人口和健康调查 (DHS) 进行验证.
主要成果:
- 使用摘要SSH的间接方法产生了与完全SSH的直接估计相一致的死亡率.
- 成人死亡风险 (15-49岁) 的平均绝对百分比误差为DHS的男性和女性均为6%.
- 在大多数调查中,直接和间接估计的置信区间重叠,尽管间接估计低于联合国人口部门的数据.
结论:
- 摘要兄弟姐妹生存问题为最近的成年人死亡率测量提供了可行的工具.
- 这种方法可以整合到人口普查和快速调查中,以便及时收集人口统计数据.
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