影响CKD:整体疾病模型预测10年人口负担
Stephen Brown1, Juan J Garcia Sanchez2, Hannah Guiang1
1EVERSANA, Burlington, Ontario, Canada.
Kidney international reports
|November 13, 2024
概括
慢性病 (CKD) 是一个日益严重的全球健康问题. 据IMPACT CKD模型预测,在未来十年内,CKD患者和相关的医疗保健成本和环境影响将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 给全球健康带来了巨大的负担,但缺乏作为公共卫生优先事项的认可.
- 推迟CKD进展的有效政策需要一个全面的疾病模型.
- 了解CKD的多维影响和调节因素对于明智的决策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证IMPACT CKD微显模拟模型.
- 从2022年到2032年预测CKD的临床,经济,社会和环境负担.
- 为评估卫生政策和CKD治疗策略提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 在IMPACT CKD模型中,使用估计的淋巴细胞过率 (eGFR) 和白尿来模拟CKD进展.
- 年度eGFR下降率预测CKD进展,包括临床事件和并发症.
- 模型验证包括面部,技术和外部有效性评估,对人口数据进行校准,并使用英国数据对现有模型进行交叉验证.
主要成果:
- 预计到2032年,CKD人口将增加7.7%.
- 晚期CKD阶段 (3-5),需要透析 (75.3%的增加) 和移植 (58.7%的增加) 的患者显著增加.
- 增加置换疗法 (RRT) 与75%的环境影响 (淡水使用,化石燃料,二氧化碳排放) 和到2032年的估计1.95亿英的成本有关.
结论:
- 该IMPACT CKD模型提供了对CKD综合负担的验证预测.
- 这种强大的模拟工具可以帮助评估各种健康政策和治疗干预措施.
- 该模型强调了CKD进展的不断升级的临床,经济和环境后果.
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