气象因素,人口免疫力和COVID-19发病率:全球多城市分析
Denise Feurer1,2, Tim Riffe3,4,5, Maxi Stella Kniffka5,6
1Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health (UBEP), University of Padua, Padua, Italy.
Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|November 13, 2024
概括
较高的温度和较低的绝对湿度与增加的COVID-19风险有关. 然而,根据全球数据,疫苗接种率和病毒株并没有改变这种天气-COVID-19关联.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气象变量被怀疑会影响COVID-19传播动态.
- 之前的研究表明,高温,绝对湿度和COVID-19传播之间存在反向关系.
- 疫苗接种和病毒菌株对这些环境关联的影响仍未得到充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 调查气象因素与COVID-19发病率之间的关联.
- 检查疫苗接种率和SARS-CoV-2主导菌株对这种天气-COVID-19关系的潜在修饰效应.
主要方法:
- 使用来自22个国家的439个城市的COVID-19数据 (2020年2月至2022年8月) 进行了两阶段的时间序列分析.
- 分析了气象变量,包括温度,湿度,太阳辐射和降水.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型和随机效应元分析,并测试了疫苗接种和菌株对效应的修改.
主要成果:
- 在温度,绝对湿度和COVID-19发病率之间发现了显著的关联.
- 与17°C相比,5°C的温度显示COVID-19的相对风险高出1.22倍,与绝对湿度的反向关联.
- 对于疫苗接种率或修改天气-COVID-19关联的主导菌株,没有观察到显著的相互作用.
结论:
- 这项研究证实了温度,绝对湿度和COVID-19发病率之间的联系.
- 疫苗接种状态和流通的病毒株并没有显著改变观察到的与COVID-19传播的环境关联.
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