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在CMIP6中验证关键的北极能源和水资源预算组件
Susanna Winkelbauer1,2,3, Michael Mayer1,2,4,3, Leopold Haimberger1,3
1Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
概括
本研究评估了北极能源和水资源预算在相结合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 模型中. 大多数模型高估了淡水流量,低估了海洋热传输,这对于准确的北极变暖预测至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 北极系统科学科学 北极系统科学
- 地球系统建模模型
背景情况:
- 对北极能源和水资源预算的准确表示对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.
- 结合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型是气候预测的关键工具,但它们的北极模拟需要彻底验证.
研究的目的:
- 调查和验证39个CMIP6模型的北极能源和水预算的历史模拟.
- 在模拟的北极过程中识别系统偏差和模型间的扩散.
- 为选择可以限制未来北极变暖预测的模型提供基于过程的指标.
主要方法:
- 分析季节周期,长期平均值以及大气和海洋运输和流动的趋势.
- 对模型输出与基于观察的估计进行验证.
- 评估淡水流量的偏差,排水时间,海洋体积运输和能源预算组件.
主要成果:
- 在CMIP6北极模拟中发现了显著的模型间变异性和系统偏差.
- 大多数模型都高估了表面淡水流量 (降水,蒸发,排水),并显示了早期排水时间.
- 海洋热传输和来自海洋表面的净上升能量流被所有模型系统地低估.
结论:
- 准确模拟北极的平均状态,特别是海洋热传输,对于可靠的未来变暖预测至关重要.
- 在CMIP6模型中的偏差突出了改进模型物理和现实的河流路线方案的需要.
- 该研究为模型选择和提高北极气候预测准确度提供了有价值的指标.
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