使用公开的葬礼和告列表来识别一个阿巴拉契亚县过度死亡率的高峰
Allen Archer1, Melissa White1, Megan Quinn1
1East Tennessee State University.
Journal of Appalachian health
|November 13, 2024
概括
葬礼公司的清单和告可以帮助比官方死亡记录更早地发现过度死亡率. 这种早期预警系统有助于公共卫生官员更早地识别社区健康危机.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 死亡率监测 死亡率监测
背景情况:
- 官方死亡数据的可用性往往有很大的延迟 (10-22个月).
- 及时获取死亡数据对于公共卫生官员来说至关重要,以识别和应对社区死亡率的增加,正如COVID-19大流行所强调的那样.
研究的目的:
- 评价葬礼公司清单和报纸告作为过度死亡率的早期指标的有用性.
- 确定这些来源是否能够在官方死亡记录可用之前识别当地过度死亡率.
主要方法:
- 收集了四年 (2017-2020年) 来自州卫生部门,葬礼机构列表和田纳西州华盛顿县的报纸告的死亡数据.
- 使用简单线性回归来根据2017-2019年的数据预测2020年预期的每月死亡人数.
- 计算并比较每个数据源的实际和预期死亡之间的百分比差异.
主要成果:
- 官方的COVID-19死亡数据仅捕获了2020年估计过度死亡率的50%.
- 在首例COVID-19死亡被官方报告之前,大约有100例过度死亡发生.
- 葬礼机构清单和告的趋势反映了官方死亡数据的模式,表明它们作为主要指标的潜力.
结论:
- 葬礼公司的清单和报纸的告可能会在第一个COVID-19死亡被确定前将近五个月提醒卫生官员增加死亡率.
- 这些可访问的公共数据源可以作为当地卫生官员发现过度死亡事件的有价值的"早期预警"系统.
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