巴西坚果在亚马逊地区未来气候变化下的旅程
Luciano J S Anjos1,2, Gabriela S R Gonçalves3, Vítor A B Dutra2
1Faculdade de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
PloS one
|November 13, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着亚马逊地区的巴西坚果树,可能在本世纪内导致高达94%的息地丧失.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 生物多样性保护 生物多样性保护
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,特别是在亚马逊等巨大多样性地区.
- 巴西坚果树 (Bertholletia excelsa) 是亚马逊生态系统的标志性和经济重要物种.
- 了解气候变化对关键物种的影响对于保护工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对亚马逊地区巴西坚果树 (Bertholletia excelsa) 的分布和持久性的潜在影响.
- 在各种气候场景下建模未来的空间动态,包括Bertholletia excelsa的分散,殖民和灭绝风险.
- 确定潜在的避难所和未来恢复的地区.
主要方法:
- 使用了一组分布建模方法.
- 采用了来自合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的四个不同的气候场景.
- 模拟物种的空间动态,包括分散事件,以评估本世纪末的未来适应性.
主要成果:
- 预计将在亚马逊生物群中广泛丧失适合Bertholletia excelsa的息地,无论气候情况如何.
- 预测,由于气候变化引起的灭绝,该物种可用的面积可能大幅减少,高达94%.
- 观察到物种迁移到更高的海拔以寻找有利条件的趋势.
- 确定了以前不适合的地区,到本世纪末可能会成为合适的地区.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将导致亚马逊地区的巴西坚果树的大量息地丧失和范围收缩.
- 该物种的未来生存可能取决于其殖民高海拔地区的能力.
- 确定新的合适区域为有针对性的保护和恢复举措提供了机会,以减轻气候变化影响.
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