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随机森林模型显示,在预测全年兽医计划的完成方面,学术和财务因素超过了人口统计学因素
Sarah E Hooper1, Natalie Ragland1,2, Elpida Artemiou3,4
11Department of Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Ross University, Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
机器学习模型准确地预测兽医学生的成功. 学术和财务因素是关键预测因素,而种族等人口统计数据对DVM学位完成并不重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医教育 兽医教育
- 机器学习在教育中的应用
- 学生的成功预测预测
背景情况:
- 留住兽医学生和及时完成学位对于解决全球兽医短缺问题至关重要.
- 预测模型可以帮助早期识别有风险的学生,从而实现有针对性的干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发随机森林分类器模型来预测兽医博士 (DVM) 学位的完成.
- 确定学术成功和DVM学位完成的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了罗斯大学兽医学院的兽医学生记录 (2013-2022年).
- 通过使用11个交叉验证的随机森林模型,评估了24个变量 (人口统计,学术,财政援助).
- 为所有数据开发了一个模型和10个年度模型来跟踪不断变化的预测因素.
主要成果:
- 学术和财务因素始终成为学生成功的最重要的预测因素.
- 人口统计学因素,如种族,并不是重要的预测因素.
- 模型表现出极好的性能,精度从96.1%到99%,AUC从98.1%到99.9%.
结论:
- 随机森林算法是有效的预测兽医学生的结果使用学术记录.
- 模型定制允许对特定兽医学校的变量进行评估.
- 通过预测分析提前识别有风险的学生对于提高留学率和及时完成DVM学位至关重要.
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