预计到2050年在德国需要长期护理的人数
Luisa Haß1, Stephanie Knippschild1, Thaddäus Tönnies2
1Faculty of Health/School of Medicine, Chair for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, Witten/Herdecke University, Witten, Germany.
Frontiers in public health
|November 14, 2024
概括
德国 德国 德国 德国
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 人口变化表明对长期护理资源的需求越来越大.
- 有效的规划对于医疗保健系统管理未来的护理需求至关重要.
- 预测对于制定主动的长期护理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2050年,德国的护理依赖个体的流行率和数量.
- 为未来规划长期护理资源和医疗保健系统能力提供信息.
主要方法:
- 用一种疾病死亡模型来预测未来的患病率.
- 整合了八个不同的场景进行全面分析.
- 根据联邦统计局第15次人口预测计算的绝对数字.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,护理依赖人数将至少增加12% (5,600万).
- 在每年2%的发病率上升的情况下,人数可能达到1400万 (+180%).
结论:
- 需要长期护理的人数将大幅增加.
- 这一趋势将加剧经济挑战,并增加对医疗保健和护理人员的需求.
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