到2050年减少全球塑料废物管理不善和温室气体排放的途径
A Samuel Pottinger1,2, Roland Geyer3, Nivedita Biyani3,4
1Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science and Environment, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
概括
如果没有干预,全球塑料废物预计到2050年将增加一倍, 联合国塑料污染条约可以大大减少废物和排放.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候变化研究
- 材料科学
背景情况:
- 塑料生产和污染对环境,环境正义和气候产生负面影响.
- 目前的趋势表明,塑料废物的管理不当以及相关的温室气体排放量大幅增加.
研究的目的:
- 在目前的轨迹下预测未来的塑料废物和排放量.
- 评估拟议的联合国塑料污染条约政策的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 使用全球和区域塑料数据集与社会经济数据相结合.
- 使用机器学习模型进行废物和排放预测.
- 模拟了八个候选条约政策的影响.
主要成果:
- 如果没有干预,到2050年,每年管理不善的塑料废弃物可能将增加一倍,达到1.12亿公.
- 预计到2050年,塑料系统的温室气体排放量将增加37%,达到335亿二氧化碳当量.
- 四个模拟的条约政策可以减少91%的塑料垃圾和三分之一的塑料相关温室气体排放.
结论:
- 联合国塑料污染条约为减少塑料垃圾和排放提供了重要机会.
- 政策干预对于重塑预期的负面环境结果至关重要.
- 有针对性的条约政策显示出环境修复的巨大潜力.
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