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基于贝叶斯理论的跨区域绿色证书双边分布强贸易战略的研究
Sizhe Yan1, Weiqing Wang2, Xiaozhu Li3
1Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Renewable Energy Generation and Grid Connection Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830047, Xinjiang, China.
Scientific reports
|November 14, 2024
概括
一个新的模式通过允许多参与者,跨区域的双边贸易来增强中国的绿色证书交易. 这种方法平衡利益,并减轻与供应,需求和不确定的可再生能源发电相关的风险.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 可再生能源市场可再生能源市场
- 游戏理论应用 游戏理论应用
背景情况:
- 目前在中国的绿色证书交易面临供需不匹配和电网运营限制的挑战.
- 现有的模型不能充分解决多参与者,跨区域交易或参与者激励的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的多参与者,跨区域绿色证书双边交易模式.
- 解决绿色证书交易中供需不平衡和电网限制的问题.
- 通过合作游戏理论平衡各种市场参与者的利益.
主要方法:
- 开发一个双边交易模式,自由谈判以激励参与者.
- 应用合作游戏理论来分析多参与者的互动和兴趣.
- 利用分布式稳定理论和贝叶斯混合效应模型来处理风能和光伏发电的不确定性.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型有效地解决了供需不匹配和电网运行约束的问题.
- 分析显示,竞争程度对参与者战略和收入产生重大影响.
- 完全合作模式表明能够稳定交易价格和电力,减轻风险.
结论:
- 开发的模型为中国有效实施绿色证书提供了一个强大的框架.
- 合作战略对于稳定绿色证书市场和确保参与者受益至关重要.
- 这些发现为政策制定者和可再生能源证书交易市场参与者提供了宝贵的见解.
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