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在风艾达之后,纽约市每小时极端降水风险越来越大
Carolien Mossel1,2, Spencer A Hill3,4, Nihar R Samal5
1Earth and Environmental Sciences, The City University of New York - Graduate Center, New York, USA. cmossel@gradcenter.cuny.edu.
Scientific reports
|November 14, 2024
概括
风艾达 (Ida) 发生在
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 极端天气事件是极端天气事件.
- 城市基础设施弹性 城市基础设施弹性
背景情况:
- 2021年9月1日,风艾达的残余物在纽约市 (NYC) 造成了灾难性的洪水.
- 创纪录的降雨强度为3.47英寸/小时,淹没了纽约市的雨水基础设施,该基础设施的设计为1.75英寸/小时.
- 了解极端降水风险对于应对气候变化的城市规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析极端降水事件的历史背景和未来风险,例如纽约市的艾达风.
- 使用非静止的随机模型来预测这种风暴的增加可能性.
- 评估不同气候共变量 (平均温度和冷却度日) 对风险评估的影响.
主要方法:
- 在历史降水数据中对伊达的强度进行了背景分析.
- 采用非静态随机模型来预测未来的风暴风险.
- 使用的气候模型预测 (SSP 126和SSP 370) 以平均温度 (Tavg) 和冷却度日 (CDD) 为共变量.
主要成果:
- 预计像艾达这样的事件的复发风险比以前静止模型估计的高4-52倍.
- 使用CDD作为共变量产生了风险预测,超过使用Tavg的两倍.
- 选择共变量对预计风险产生重大影响,突出显示了需要区域适当的选择的需要.
结论:
- 由于气候变化,极端降雨事件如风艾达变得越来越频繁和强烈.
- 非静态风险评估对于使城市基础设施适应未来气候影响至关重要.
- 仔细选择气候共变量对于城市规划中准确可靠的风险预测至关重要.
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