在气候变化下外来哺乳动物的全球分布
Dino Biancolini1,2,3, Michela Pacifici2, Mattia Falaschi4
1Institute for Bioeconomy (CNR-IBE), National Research Council of Italy, Rome, Italy.
Global change biology
|November 15, 2024
概括
气候变化在全球范围内扩大了外来入侵哺乳动物的适合息地,增加了它们的建立潜力. 管理工作应专注于泛型物种和脆弱的岛屿生态系统,以保护生物多样性.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 生物入侵,特别是外来物种的入侵,对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁.
- 预计气候变化将通过改变物种分布和促进传播,加剧入侵风险.
- 之前的研究还没有通过结合气候适应性和哺乳动物等关键分类群体的分散潜力来全面评估入侵风险.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种气候变化情景,到2050年预测205种外来哺乳动物物种的未来分布.
- 区分容易自然分散的区域 (扩散潜力) 和人类辅助的建立 (建立潜力).
- 确定高风险的入侵物种和脆弱地区,以进行有针对性的保护和管理.
主要方法:
- 利用物种分布模型来预测外来哺乳动物的潜在未来分布.
- 纳入物种的分散能力,以评估传播潜力 (SP) 和建立潜力 (EP).
- 在三个不同的气候场景下,分析了11个动物地理领域的影响.
主要成果:
- 气候变化通常会增强外来哺乳动物的建立潜力 (EP),并观察到极向转移.
- 扩散潜力 (SP) 受气候变化的负面影响,受岛屿岛屿的限制.
- 外来哺乳动物在某些地区 (尤其是岛屿) 可能失去适合性,可能充当地理陷,而在其他地区则增加.
结论:
- 气候变化带来了双重威胁,增加了殖民潜力,同时可能限制了外来哺乳动物的自然传播.
- 管理策略应优先考虑具有高入侵潜力的通用物种,并应对新地区的风险增加.
- 保护工作,特别是岛屿生态系统,需要综合方法来打击生物入侵和气候变化对生物多样性的影响.
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