使用随机森林来预测使用基线和早期使用数据对抑郁症在线干预的坚持:模型开发和对回顾性例行护理日志数据的验证
Franziska Wenger1, Caroline Allenhof2, Simon Schreynemackers3
1Clinic for Psychiatry, Psychosomatics and Psychotherapy, University Hospital, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
JMIR formative research
|November 15, 2024
概括
早期用户参与在线抑郁工具是坚持的关键. 分析第一周的使用行为可以比人口统计学更好地预测遵守,从而实现针对性干预,以获得更好的结果.
科学领域:
- 数字心理健康数字心理健康
- 计算精神病学是一种计算精神病学.
- 机器学习在医疗保健中的应用
背景情况:
- 在线干预提供了可访问的抑郁症治疗替代方案.
- 较低的坚持率可能会限制数字心理健康工具的有效性.
- 预测坚持对于优化用户参与和治疗结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个随机森林模型来预测对iFightDepression (iFD) 工具的坚持.
- 确定面临早期干预未完成风险的用户.
- 提高在线抑郁症干预措施的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用iFD工具,利用了4187名成年患者的日志数据.
- 使用基线和第一周使用数据训练了一种随机森林模型.
- 使用精度,F1得分和AUC评估模型性能,分析变量重要性.
主要成果:
- 一个结合第一周使用行为模型显著预测了坚持 (P<.001).
- 在预测粘附性方面实现了0.82准确度和0.83AUC.
- 关键预测因素包括早期的使用模式,如日志,字数和在工具上花费的时间.
结论:
- 早期参与和第一周使用行为比社会人口统计学或临床因素更强有力的坚持预测因素.
- 分析早期使用模式可以识别有风险的用户,进行量身定制的干预.
- 基于预测遵守的积极干预可以提高用户参与度并优化在线心理健康支持.
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