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建模和测试战略相互依赖性,并推进公共政策实施
Lu Liu1, Zhihan Cui2, Howard Kunreuther3
1New York University Shanghai, Shanghai 200124, China.
概括
关于COVID-19的州政策选择,比如口罩强制和住所订单,受到邻近州的严重影响. 政治对齐显著影响了采用,国家倾向于类似国家采用的政策.
科学领域:
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 公共政策分析 公共政策分析
背景情况:
- COVID-19非药物干预措施 (NPIs),如口罩佩戴和住所在场 (SIP) 是至关重要的.
- 在美国,州级的政策决策缺乏统一的联邦方法,导致各种各样的反应.
研究的目的:
- 开发和测试国家级COVID-19政策采用的战略相互依赖的游戏理论模型.
- 分析影响美国各州实施社会距离和口罩政策的因素.
主要方法:
- 发展战略相互依存的游戏理论模型.
- 使用探针和逻辑模型进行计量经济学估计.
- 分析美国每日州级COVID-19政策数据.
主要成果:
- 关于SIP和口罩的国家政策选择中证实了显著的相互依赖.
- 有证据表明,'转折点'效应,其中一些州的广泛采用会影响其他州.
- 政策的采用主要是由同行国家选择,政治取向,在较小程度上,案件数量.
- 戴口罩的政策比SIP政策更容易受到同行影响.
- 与民主党主导的州相比,共和党主导的州对口罩穿戴政策的采用率较低.
结论:
- 国家政策决策表现出强大的战略相互依赖,受到政治对齐和同行行为的影响.
- 在政策制定中,政治考虑往往超过公共卫生数据.
- 该研究为理解复杂,相互依存的政策动态提供了分析框架.
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