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预计极度活跃的大西洋风季节的频率将增加
Hosmay Lopez1, Sang-Ki Lee1, Robert West1,2
1Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.
Science advances
|November 15, 2024
概括
北大西洋风季节变得越来越多变化,活动和不活动的极端时期越来越多. 这一由人类活动驱动的趋势预计将加剧,影响沿海社区.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 热带气象学 热带气象学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 北大西洋热带气旋 (TC) 季节的年复一年变化对风易发地区具有重大社会影响.
- 过去和未来的TC活动变化及其驱动因素仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查北大西洋TC活动的历史和预测变化,特别关注跨年变化.
- 评估人为强迫对这些变化的贡献.
主要方法:
- 分析历史TC数据以确定跨年变化趋势.
- 利用TC解决的一般流通模型来预测TC活动的未来变化.
- 检查大气变量的变化,例如垂直风切和稳定性.
主要成果:
- 大西洋TC活动的年间变化已经增加,导致更频繁的极端活跃和不活跃季节.
- 到21世纪中叶,TC解决模型预计北大西洋TC活动 (以积累的旋风能量衡量) 的变量将增加36%.
- 预计变化率的增加与太平洋和大西洋之间的海面温度变化增加有关,这会影响风力剪切和稳定性.
结论:
- 人为强迫正在强烈加剧大西洋TC活动的变化.
- 未来的TC活动变化的强化对风易受影响的地区的应急规划和社会准备有重大影响.
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