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权衡准确性和可解释性:一个R包评估复杂的关系超出了考克斯模型和应用到临床预测
Diana Shamsutdinova1, Daniel Stamate2, Daniel Stahl1
1Department of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
International journal of medical informatics
|November 15, 2024
概括
在复杂的临床数据中,机器学习 (ML) 生存模型在复杂的临床数据中表现优于传统的Cox比例危险模型 (Cox-PH),但在表格数据中并不总是如此. 一个新的R包,survcompare,通过评估准确性和可解释性来帮助选择最佳的临床预测模型.
科学领域:
- * 计算生物学 计算生物学
- * 生物信息学是一门学科.
- * 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- *准确和可解释的模型对于临床决策至关重要.
- * 机器学习 (ML) 生存方法提供高精度,但需要后期解释.
- *传统的Cox比例危险模型 (Cox-PH) 是透明的,但不那么灵活,需要模型验证.
研究的目的:
- * 开发R函数来比较Cox-PH与ML生存模型 (基于树的和深度学习).
- * 在临床预测中探索Cox-PH与ML模型的性能极限.
- * 采用集体学习和嵌套交叉验证来进行可靠的模型评估.
主要方法:
- * 开发了支持Cox-PH,Cox-Lasso,Survival Random Forest (SRF) 和DeepHit的R包"survcompare",并提供了支持.
- * 实施组合方法来隔离ML的边际值.
- *使用重复嵌套交叉验证和生存特异性性能指标 (一致性指数,时间依赖的AUC-ROC,校准斜率).
主要成果:
- *ML模型在模拟数据 (≥500个样本),成像和高维临床数据方面表现优于Cox-PH.
- *对于表格式的临床数据,ML的增长是最小的;Cox-Lasso提供了可比性能,计算速度更快.
- *集成方法量化了Cox-PH极限和改进了ML校准,突出了传统模型对特定数据类型的价值.
结论:
- * "survcompare"套件为评估临床预测模型中的准确性-解释性权衡提供了一个框架.
- * 通过比较ML和传统的生存模型来促进知情模型选择.
- *传统模型对于表格或较小的数据集仍然有价值,平衡性能和计算效率.
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