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可解释的人工智能可用于可靠的水需求预测,以增加对预测的信任
Claudia Maußner1, Martin Oberascher2, Arnold Autengruber3
1Fraunhofer Austria Research GmbH KI4LIFE, Lakeside B13a, 9020 Klagenfurt am Wörthersee, Austria.
Water research
|November 15, 2024
概括
欧盟的人工智能法案将水系统中的人工智能分类为高风险. 透明和不透明的人工智能模型都满足了可解释性的需求,但在预测水需求时的准确性和稳定性各不相同.
科学领域:
- 水资源管理水资源的管理.
- 人工智能 (AI) 监管法规
- 机器学习 (ML) 是指机器学习.
背景情况:
- 欧盟的人工智能法案将供水系统中的人工智能归类为高风险,因为它可能对基础设施和可靠性产生影响.
- 人工智能应用程序,如自动坦克操作的水需求预测,必须满足严格的透明度和稳定性的要求.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估各种机器学习模型的准确性,透明度和稳定性,用于人工智能驱动的水需求预测.
- 评估是否符合欧盟人工智能法案对供水系统中高风险人工智能的要求.
主要方法:
- 应用了六种已建立的机器学习模型 (透明和不透明) 对各种数据集进行日常水需求预测.
- 系统地根据准确性,透明度 (可追溯性,可解释性) 和技术稳定性标准评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 不透明模型通常通过捕获复杂的关系 (例如天气数据) 来提供更高的预测准确性,但更容易受到输入预测错误的影响.
- 透明的模型,主要使用历史需求数据,显示出对数据不规则的更大稳定性.
- 这两种模型类型都可以实现可解释性,但在透明度水平和对输入错误的稳定性方面有所不同.
结论:
- 对于水需求预测,透明和不透明的人工智能模型之间的选择取决于平衡预测准确性与数据变化的稳定性.
- 模型选择应考虑欧盟人工智能法案的监管框架内的操作者偏好和特定应用环境.
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