根据GBD,CI5plus和世卫组织数据,到2040年预测的流行病学趋势和肝癌负担
Qianqian Guo1, Xiaorong Zhu2,3, Narasimha M Beeraka4,5,6,7
1Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, No. 1, Jianshe East Road, Zhengzhou, 450000, People's Republic of China.
Scientific reports
|November 15, 2024
概括
肝癌是全球主要的健康问题,在发病率和死亡率方面排名第六. 预测显示,到2040年,病例将大幅增加,强调需要加强预防策略.
科学领域:
- 全球瘤学 全球瘤学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肝癌是全球癌症相关死亡的主要原因之一.
- 在全球不同地区,发病率和死亡率存在显著差异.
- 危险因素包括吸烟,饮酒以及高体重指数.
研究的目的:
- 描述肝癌的全球疾病负担,风险因素和发病率/死亡率趋势.
- 估计到2040年肝癌发病率和死亡率的未来预测.
- 分析基于性别和年龄的肝癌模式的全球变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自GLOBOCAN 2020,CI5卷I-XI,世卫组织死亡数据库和GBD-2019的数据.
- 分析了年龄标准化的发病率和死亡率 (ASR).
- 计算的年平均百分比变化 (AAPC) 和预计的未来趋势到2040年.
主要成果:
- 在2020年,肝癌占全球905,677例新病例和782,000例死亡.
- 北欧和亚洲的发病率显著增加,而北非的死亡负担更高.
- 预计到2040年,病例将从905,347人增加到1,392,474人,年轻人群体的明显增加.
结论:
- 肝癌发病率和死亡率在全球范围内不断增加,特别是在年轻人群中.
- 西欧和北美面临与生活方式因素相关的高DALY负担.
- 预防策略需要紧急关注公共卫生,特别是在发展中国家.
关键词:
2040年 预测的利率 预测的利率年龄标准化死亡率.在CI5卷IXII中.GBD 数据库 GBD 数据库 GBD 数据库性别 性别 性别 性别HDI HDI是指高清的高清.肝癌是一种肝癌.世卫组织的数据库.更多相关视频
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