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陆地移动物种分布的近期预测,以在极端天气事件下进行适应性管理
Rachel Dobson1,2, Stephen G Willis2, Stewart Jennings3
1Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Global change biology
|November 16, 2024
概括
短期预测准确地预测了极端天气期间移动物种分布的变化. 这一进步有助于适应性管理策略的保护和害虫控制,增强生态系统的弹性.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 移动物种是生态系统的关键组成部分,由于气候变化驱动的极端天气而面临分布转移.
- 意想不到的转变挑战了保护工作,并加剧了对粮食安全的害虫影响.
- 需要适应性管理策略来减轻这些影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估在极端天气条件下移动陆地物种分布的近期预测的稳定性.
- 评估动态物种分布模型 (D-SDMs) 对于季节性预测的准确性和可靠性.
- 探索预测用于移动物种适应性管理的应用.
主要方法:
- 红嘴 (Quelea quelea) 的近期 (2周至7个月) 分布预测.
- 通过使用动态物种分布模型 (D-SDMs) 进行了13年的 (2004-2016) 后预测,包括重大干旱.
- 根据数据可用性和天气条件评估预测准确性和后预测可靠性.
主要成果:
- 通过高分辨率和大空间尺度,可以准确的季节性 (长达7个月) 预测红嘴分布.
- 预测表现,包括在极端干旱期间,是强的.
- 预测准确性和可靠性主要受训练数据的可用性影响,而不是天气条件.
结论:
- 动态物种分布模型 (D-SDM) 允许准确的近期预测移动物种分布,即使在极端天气条件下.
- 预测系统可以为适应性管理提供信息,预测害虫疫情,并促进积极的资源动员.
- 这些预测技术为全球移动物种更有弹性,更适应性管理提供了途径.
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