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通过使用EVT理论和C-vine Copula,分析跨多市场资本流的风险传播和波动溢出效应
Fahim Afzal1, Haiying Pan1, Farman Afzal2
1Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing, 211100, China.
Heliyon
|November 18, 2024
概括
美国和东亚的金融市场表现出相互依赖. 这项研究揭示了风险传染途径,发现美国对东亚的影响比中国更大,在高波动期间溢出效应较弱.
科学领域:
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
- 量化金融 量化金融
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 金融市场越来越相互依赖,特别是在美国和东亚经济体之间.
- 风险传播和传播是全球金融稳定和投资战略的关键问题.
研究的目的:
- 研究跨金融市场风险传播的途径,特别是中国,美国和东亚之间的风险传播.
- 在高波动期和定期波动期分析波动事件和相关性模式.
主要方法:
- 运用极值理论 (EVT) 和C-葡萄合数量回归.
- 采用自回归 (AR) (1),指数式通用自回归有条件异种类型 (EGARCH) (1,1) 和高峰超过值 (POT) 模型.
- 在不同的市场条件下,研究了风险溢出效应和相关动态.
主要成果:
- 美国在东亚市场上表现出显著的风险传播效应,超过了中国.
- 与对美国市场的预期相反,在高波动时期,风险溢出效应被发现较弱.
- 确定了波动事件的独特模式,以及常规和高波动市场阶段之间的相关性.
结论:
- 中国的金融影响力预计将随着持续的部门整合和金融独立倡议而增长.
- 调查结果强调需要强有力的宏观审慎监管来管理跨境风险溢出影响.
- 国际投资者可以利用这些见解来加强风险对冲,衍生品估值和战略投资决策.
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