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操作数值天气预报模型预测降雨的验证,使用卫星对非洲的降雨估计
Yan Wang1, Moussa Gueye1,2, Steven J Greybush1,3
1Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
Meteorological applications
|November 18, 2024
概括
本研究使用数值天气模型 (NWM) 评估了非洲的短期降雨预报. 与每日预报相比,每周预报的准确性有所提高,突出显示季节性变化和热带之间的融合区 (ITCZ).
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地质科学 地质科学
背景情况:
- 雨量监测和预测对非洲的农业,粮食安全和公共卫生至关重要.
- 数字天气模型 (NWM) 提供完整的空间覆盖,以及对该地区至关重要的高分辨率降雨预测.
研究的目的:
- 评估2016-2018年非洲地区短期降雨预报的时空技能.
- 将ECMWF和NCEP-GFS模型的性能与基于卫星的降雨估计进行比较.
主要方法:
- 验证欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 和国家环境预报中心-全球预报系统 (NCEP-GFS) 的降雨预报.
- 利用降雨预估2.0 (RFE2) 和非洲降雨气候学版本2 (ARC2) 进行模型验证.
- 分析了每日和每周的预报技能,考虑到季节性变化和地理特征.
主要成果:
- 模型降雨预测显示出与季节性时间尺度上的卫星观测有很好的空间一致性.
- 每日和每周的预报评估显示,非洲各地存在显著的空间和季节性变化.
- 与每日预测相比,预测准确性在1周的聚合时间上有所改善.
结论:
- 数字天气模型在预测非洲各地降雨空间分布方面表现出了很好的技巧.
- 预报表现受到热带融合区 (ITCZ) 和地形等因素的影响.
- 将预测汇总到每周的时间表上可以提高预测的准确性.
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