气候变化下的最低死亡温度的时间变化:跨越1986-2015年的多国多社区观测研究
Daewon Yang1, Masahiro Hashizume2,3, Aurelio Tobías3,4
1Department of Information and Statistics, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea.
Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|November 18, 2024
概括
人口对温度的敏感性因地区而异. 最低死亡温度 (MMT) 和MMT百分位数 (MMTP) 在全球范围内显示异质的时间变化,表明特定区域对气候变化的适应.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 最低死亡温度 (MMT) 和其百分位数 (MMTP) 表示人口对非最佳温度的敏感性.
- 在MMT和MMTP的时间变化显示出显著的区域异质性.
- 了解这些变化对于评估人口对气候变化的脆弱性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查MMT和MMTP时间变化的异质性.
- 分析跨多个社区和国家的这些变化.
- 为了研究人口温度敏感性的特定区域的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用来自34个国家的699个社区 (1986-2015) 的死亡率和环境温度的每日时间序列数据.
- 采用了两阶段的元分析,包括准波桑回归和混合效应元回归.
- 检查了MMT和MMTP的总体和按气候区,地理区域和国家分层的时间趋势.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,MMT从19.5°C增加到20.3°C,MMTP从74.5到75.0百分点增加.
- 在地理区域之间观察到时间变化的显著异质性 (P < 0.001).
- 东亚和东南亚的MMT增加,南欧的MMTP下降,北欧和南欧的MMTP下降.
结论:
- 在MMT和MMTP的时间变化在不同地区是高度异质的.
- 人口对温度的敏感性可能随着气候变暖而演变,显示出相当大的区域差异.
- 这些发现凸显了需要区域特定的公共卫生战略来应对气候变化的影响.
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