美国内战死亡率的新估计来自完整的人口普查记录
Joan Barceló1, Jeffrey L Jensen1, Leonid Peisakhin1
1Division of Social Science, New York University-Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
概括
美国最致命的冲突,内战,估计有698,000人死亡,这个数字比以前的估计更准确. 新的方法显示,与联盟国家相比,南部州的死亡率明显高.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 历史流行病学 历史流行病学
- 美国历史 美国历史
背景情况:
- 美国内战仍然是美国历史上最致命的冲突.
- 估计确切的死亡人数,特别是在州层面,由于历史记录不完整而具有挑战性.
- 之前的国家死亡人数估计有所不同,数字约为618,000和750,000.
研究的目的:
- 提供迄今为止最精确的国家估计内战过度死亡率.
- 为了产生可靠的州级估计,本地出生的白人男性的过度死亡率.
- 为了比较南方联盟和联盟国家的内战死亡率影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了个人人口普查结果的全部计数.
- 在多次人口普查中采用了链接记录的样本.
- 开发并应用了一种新的移民调整人口普查比较方法.
主要成果:
- 国家内战死亡人数估计为698,000人.
- 这一数字高于常规估计 (618,000),但低于最近1%的样本估计 (约. 75万) 的时间.
- 该研究记录了南部邦联州与联邦州的战争损失大得多.
结论:
- 该研究提供了对内战死亡率的精细国家估计.
- 它提供了关键的州级洞察力,了解战争对本土出生的白人男性的人口影响.
- 调查结果突出了邦联和联盟之间死亡率的显著区域差异.
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