2016-2023年抗生素消费的全球趋势以及到2030年的未来预测
Eili Y Klein1,2, Isabella Impalli1, Suprena Poleon1
1One Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.
概括
从2016年到2023年,全球抗生素消费量增加了16.3%,主要是由中等收入国家推动的. 由于COVID-19大流行,使用量暂时减少,特别是在高收入国家. 如果没有干预,到2030年,消费可能会升52.3%.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生健康 全球卫生健康
- 药品制造业 药品制造业 药品制造业 药品制造业
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 抗生素耐药性是全球主要的健康挑战.
- 人类消费的抗生素是一个重要的贡献因素.
- 分析消费趋势对于制定政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计2016-2023年全球抗生素消费趋势.
- 分析经济增长和COVID-19大流行对消费的影响.
- 预测未来的全球抗生素消费到2030年.
主要方法:
- 使用了从IQVIA获得许可的制药销售数据.
- 67个国家估计的国家级抗生素消费.
- 分析了趋势,经济因素和流行病的影响.
主要成果:
- 从2016年到2023年,抗生素消费量增加了16.3% (从295亿到343亿个DDD).
- 消费率上升了10.6% (13.7到15.2 DDD每1000名居民/天).
- 在中高收入和中低收入国家增幅最高;COVID-19导致全球暂时减少,最显著的是高收入国家.
结论:
- 如果目前的趋势持续下去,预计到2030年全球抗生素消费量将增加52.3%.
- 发展中国家迫切需要改善基础设施 (水,卫生设施) 和疫苗接种.
- 政策干预对于缓解不断增加的抗生素使用和打击抗菌素耐药性至关重要.
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