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青少年和年轻成年人当前和未来的全球癌症负担:基于人口的研究
Taylor Hughes1, Andrew Harper2, Sumit Gupta3
1Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
The Lancet. Oncology
|November 18, 2024
概括
发达国家癌症发病率最高,但死亡率不成比例地影响低收入国家. 到2050年,全球青少年和年轻成年人癌症负担将增加12%,而在低HDI环境中将增加一倍.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 与其他年龄组相比,青少年和年轻成年人 (15-39岁) 的癌症负担仍未得到充分研究.
- 这项研究量化了2022年这一人口群体的全球癌症负担,并将其预测到2050年.
- 研究了发病率,死亡率和病例死亡率的关键模式.
研究的目的:
- 在2022年量化青少年和年轻成年人 (AYA) 癌症的全球负担.
- 预测2050年AYA的癌症负担.
- 根据地区,收入和人类发展指数 (HDI) 分析发病率,死亡率和病例死亡率模式.
主要方法:
- 利用GLOBOCAN数据库来获取基于人口的癌症数据.
- 对所有癌症 (不包括非黑色素瘤皮肤癌) 和33种特定类型的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率 (ASR) 的计算.
- 通过将2022年利率应用于2050年的联合国人口预测,估计了未来的负担.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,AYA估计发生了1,300,196例癌症病例和377,621例癌症死亡.
- 发生率和死亡率ASR在女性中高于男性.
- 在低收入 (57%) 和高收入 (12%) 环境中,病例死亡率明显高,乳腺癌和宫癌是许多国家的主要原因.
结论:
- 虽然发达国家发生率最高,但转型国家面临着最差的结果和最大的癌症负担预计增加.
- 预计到2050年,全球AYA癌症负担将增加12%,在低HDI环境中增加102.3%.
- 这些发现旨在为全球癌症控制优先事项提供信息,并减少AYA的不平等.
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