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基于风险的随机能源-水-碳联系分析模型,以支持省级多系统协同管理 - - 中国山西的一个案例研究

Y L Zheng¹, G H Huang², Y P Li¹

¹State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, China-Canada Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, UR-BNU, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

The Science of the total environment

|November 18, 2024

概括

这项研究引入了管理能源-水-碳系统的新模式,这对可持续发展至关重要. 它表明清洁能源将主导山西.

科学领域:

能源系统分析能源系统分析
环境工程环境工程
优化理论优化理论

背景情况:

可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 需要能源-水-碳 (EWC) 联系的综合管理.
现有的模型往往与EWC系统固有的不确定性作斗争.
解决 EWC 管理的双重目标优化对于环境和能源安全至关重要.

研究的目的:

开发一个非决定性间隔机会受约束的分数优化模型 (ICCF-EWC) 进行协同 EWC 联系管理.
分析水资源短缺和碳减排压力对EWG系统的影响.
调查 EWC 纽带内的潜在协同减排效应.

主要方法:

开发了一种新的非决定性间隔机会受约束的分数优化模型 (ICCF-EWC).
嵌入了随机概率分布和间隔值来处理参数不确定性.
将模型应用于中国山西省的一个案例研究,对30年的预测.

主要成果:

预计在30年内,山西省清洁和可再生能源的累计装机容量将超过65%.
预计风力发电将大大超过燃煤/燃气发电.
缺水和碳减排压力有利于清洁能源转化,而不是用于热能的大规模碳捕获和储存 (CCS).

结论:

ICCF-EWC模型提供了一种有效的方法,用于在不确定性下管理复杂的EWC系统.
这些发现支持电力系统的低碳转型,并为节水和减排碳的政策提供信息.
该模型适用于依赖不同能源资源的区域电力系统.

关键词:

经济与环境之间的权衡.能源 - 水 - 碳联系编程低碳系统的编程非决定性的分析分析.减轻水资源短缺的困难水-碳协同管理的协同管理

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