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股票回报率是否应对物理和过渡气候风险? 来自新兴金国家经济体的证据
Abdul Saqib1, Ihtisham Hussain2, Salma Mefteh-Wali3
1Graduate School of Business, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia.
Journal of environmental management
|November 19, 2024
概括
气候风险显著影响新兴经济体的股票回报. 过渡风险会对所有金国家产生负面影响,而物理风险会对中国,印度和南非产生特别影响.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 越来越多的人意识到气候变化对金融市场的影响.
- 新兴经济体 (金国家) 特别容易受到与气候有关的冲击.
- 需要区分物理风险和过渡气候风险.
研究的目的:
- 研究物理和过渡性气候风险对金经济体股市回报的差异影响.
- 分析面板层面和国家特定影响.
- 为投资者和政策制定者提供可操作的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用了小组级和国家级的分析.
- 雇佣的横截面增强自回归分布式滞后 (ARL) 模型.
- 数据涵盖2000年1月至2023年3月,包括自然灾害频率,受影响人口,温度/降水异常和气候政策不确定性.
主要成果:
- 过渡期气候风险增加导致所有金国家短期和长期都出现了显著的负面股票回报冲击.
- 物理气候风险指标对中国,印度和南非的股票回报产生了负面影响.
- 在巴西和俄罗斯,物理气候风险影响并不显著.
结论:
- 过渡期气候风险对金国家股票市场构成广泛威胁.
- 物理气候风险对股票回报的影响在金国家集团内是国家特有的.
- 调查结果强调需要量身定制的投资策略和政策制定,以减轻与气候有关的金融风险.
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