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相关概念视频

Regression Toward the Mean01:52

Regression Toward the Mean

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Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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Reliability and Validity01:29

Reliability and Validity

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Reliability and validity are two important considerations that must be made with any type of data collection. Reliability refers to the ability to consistently produce a given result. In the context of psychological research, this would mean that any instruments or tools used to collect data do so in consistent, reproducible ways.
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jun 7, 2025

Measuring Statistical Learning Across Modalities and Domains in School-Aged Children Via an Online Platform and Neuroimaging Techniques
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在心理学研究中评估神经网络的预测可靠性,使用随机数据集.

Yongtian Cheng1, K V Petrides1

  • 1University College London (UCL), London, UK.

Educational and psychological measurement
|November 20, 2024
PubMed
概括

神经网络可以产生可靠的心理预测,有足够的数据. 对于连续结果,超过50个样本就足够了,但是二进制结果需要更大的样本大小 (200-500) 来进行准确的机器学习预测.

科学领域:

  • 心理学 心理学 心理学
  • 机器学习 机器学习
  • 统计建模 统计建模

背景情况:

  • 心理学家越来越多地使用预测模型.
  • 监督的神经网络在心理学中的预测任务中很常见.
  • 有关随机数据集的神经网络可靠性存在担忧.

研究的目的:

  • 在心理学中,用随机数据集评估神经网络的预测性能.
  • 使用神经网络确定可靠结论的最小样本大小.
  • 为了指导心理学家在机器学习应用程序的样本大小规划.

主要方法:

  • 进行了一项蒙特卡洛模拟研究.
  • 神经网络配备了随机数据集 (变量之间没有真正的关系).
  • 绩效是使用诸如平衡精度和曲线下面面积 (AUC) 等指标来评估的.

主要成果:

  • 对于连续依赖变量,样本大小>50通常可以防止错误的结论.
  • 对于二进制依赖变量,取决于所需的平衡精度值,需要200-500个样本大小.
  • 不同的AUC性能标准 (≥ .6至≥ .7) 需要特定的样本大小 (100-500).
关键词:
平衡的准确性 均衡的准确性蒙特卡洛模拟的蒙特卡洛模拟错误的决定 错误的决定预测结果 预测结果.监督的神经网络监督的神经网络

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结论:

  • 当使用适当的样本大小时,神经网络可以在心理学中提供可接受的预测性能.
  • 这项研究提供了在使用神经网络的心理学研究中对样本大小规划的经验证据.
  • 这些发现强调了样本大小的重要性,以确保基于机器学习的心理结论的有效性.