一个新的M-Lognormal-Burr回归模型,用于模拟重尾索赔严重性数据的可变值
Girish Aradhye1, Deepesh Bhati1, George Tzougas2
1Department of Statistics, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer, India.
Journal of applied statistics
|November 20, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新的复合Lognormal-Burr分布,用于建模保险索赔严重程度. 新的复合回归模型有效地捕捉了各种保险人风险,并通过真实数据进行了验证.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 精算科学 精算科学
- 可能性理论概率理论.
背景情况:
- 准确建模保险索赔严重程度对于风险管理至关重要.
- 传统的分布可能无法完全捕捉各种损失数据的复杂性.
- 复合概率分布为模拟异质数据提供了一个灵活的框架.
研究的目的:
- 为了介绍一个新的复合Lognormal-Burr分布家族.
- 为索赔严重程度数据开发一个复合回归模型.
- 证明拟议模型的实际应用和有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用模式匹配技术开发一种新的复合Lognormal-Burr分布.
- 构建一个包含新分布的复合回归模型.
- 参数估计方法用于精确的模型校准.
主要成果:
- 拟议的复合Lognormal-Burr分布有效地模拟了索赔严重性数据.
- 复合回归模型证明了解决不同保险人风险特征的能力.
- 使用现实保险数据的验证证实了该模型的实际实用性.
结论:
- 复合概率分布,特别是Lognormal-Burr家族,为索赔严重程度建模提供了一个强大的工具.
- 开发的复合回归模型为精算分析提供了有效的方法.
- 该研究强调了先进的统计方法在保险风险评估中的重要性.
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