海洋表面温度观测中的20世纪初的冷偏差
Sebastian Sippel1,2, Elizabeth C Kent3, Nicolai Meinshausen4
1Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany. sebastian.sippel@uni-leipzig.de.
Nature
|November 20, 2024
概括
由于海洋温度记录中的冷偏差,二十世纪初的全球温度可能被低估. 这种偏差的纠正揭示了比以前认为的更温和的变暖趋势和更低的变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 古气候学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 全球平均表面温度记录结合了海面和陆地空气温度,对于了解气候变化至关重要.
- 早期的全球温度记录 (20世纪初) 由于测量变化,不完整的数据和空间覆盖差距而表现出不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 调查20世纪初海洋温度数据中的潜在偏差.
- 用独立的海洋和陆地数据重新评估全球平均表面温度重建.
主要方法:
- 使用独立的海洋和陆地数据集进行全球平均表面温度的统计重建.
- 分析归因,时间尺度,沿海网格细胞和古气候数据以支持发现.
主要成果:
- 基于海洋的温度重建 (1900-1930) 大约比基于陆地的温度低0.26°C.
- 观察到的海洋温度的寒冷异常是不强迫的,并不能通过内部气候模型的变化来解释.
- 证据表明,在20世纪初的全球海面温度记录中存在大量的冷偏差.
结论:
- 纠正海洋冷偏差导致20世纪初更温和的变暖趋势.
- 调整后的数据表明十年级变化较低,模拟和观察到的变暖之间更好的一致性.
- 这些发现影响了我们对历史气候变化和气候模型验证的理解.
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