联合LIME:一种机器学习生存模型的解释方法,在信用评分中具有内生时间变化的协变量
Yujia Chen1, Raffaella Calabrese1,2, Belen Martin-Barragan1
1Business School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 21, 2024
概括
联合LIME是一种解释黑子生存 (BBS) 模型的新方法,独特地处理内源时间变异共变量 (TVC). 它通过提供对生存预测更全面的见解来改进现有方法.
科学领域:
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 生存分析的分析.
- 可解释的人工智能
背景情况:
- 黑子生存 (BBS) 模型越来越多地使用,但缺乏可解释性.
- 像SurvLIME这样的现有解释方法仅限于时间不变的共变量.
- 有需要的方法可以解释BBS模型与时间变化的共变量,特别是内源的.
研究的目的:
- 引入JointLIME,这是BBS模型的新解读方法,具有内生时间变异共变量 (TVC).
- 为了解决无法处理电视通讯的现有方法的局限性.
- 提供可解释的解释,量化共变量对生存预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 联合LIME适应了本地可解释模型-不可知解释 (LIME) 框架.
- 它使用联合模型在本地近似BBS模型生存功能.
- 通过基于支线的模型和蒙特卡洛法进行精确估计,将内源的TVC纳入.
主要成果:
- 联合LIME成功地解释了BBS模型与内源的TVC.
- 该方法通过联合模型的系数值量化协变量影响.
- 使用美国抵押贷款数据集证明有效性,与SurvLIME进行比较.
结论:
- 在解释复杂的生存模型方面,JointLIME提供了显著的进步.
- 它独特地处理内源的时间变异共变量,扩大了生存分析中可解释AI的范围.
- 该方法为了解在存在动态风险因素的情况下了解生存预测提供了宝贵的见解.
相关概念视频
Assumptions of Survival Analysis
97
Survival models analyze the time until one or more events occur, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. These models are widely used across fields like medicine, biology, engineering, and public health to study time-to-event phenomena. To ensure accurate results, survival analysis relies on key assumptions and careful study design.
97
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
364
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
364
Introduction To Survival Analysis
184
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
184
Survival Tree
61
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
61
Truncation in Survival Analysis
168
Truncation in survival analysis refers to the exclusion of individuals or events from the dataset based on specific criteria related to the time of the event. This exclusion can happen in two primary forms: left truncation and right truncation.
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are...
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are...
168
Prediction Intervals
2.2K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.2K


