影响可持续人口增长的关键因素:DEMATEL-ANP综合方法
Fei Pang1, Guo Miao2, Yingxu Li3
1School of Education Science, Hanshan Normal University, Chaozhou, 52041, China.
Heliyon
|November 21, 2024
概括
可持续的社会人口增长是由经济发展和技术进步推动的. 这些因素显著影响教育,健康和环境可持续性,指导未来增长的政策干预.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
- 社会政策 社会政策 社会政策
背景情况:
- 可持续的社会人口增长对全球发展至关重要.
- 了解影响因素的相互作用是有效政策的关键.
研究的目的:
- 识别和分析影响可持续社会人口增长的关键因素.
- 使用DEMATEL-ANP组合模型来确定这些因素的相互作用和相对重要性.
主要方法:
- 使用混合决策试验和评估实验室 (DEMATEL) 和分析网络过程 (ANP) 模型.
- 分析了六个关键因素:经济发展,教育/性别平等,健康,环境,移民和技术.
- 针对深度学习,整体,因果推理,复杂网络和基于代理的模型进行验证的模型性能.
主要成果:
- 优化的DEMATEL-ANP模型实现了高精度 (0.973),精度 (0.981),回忆 (0.969),以及F1得分 (0.89).
- 经济发展 (影响评分3.91) 和技术进步 (3.43) 被确定为主要驱动因素.
- 教育,健康和技术被发现是敏感因素,受到其他因素的显著影响.
结论:
- 经济发展和技术进步对于可持续的社会人口增长至关重要.
- 调查结果为政策制定提供了科学基础,强调了经济和技术战略.
- 该研究为人口统计,可持续发展和社会政策研究提供了宝贵的见解.
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