贝叶斯混合模型对橄球联赛中预期的占有值的方法
Thomas Sawczuk1,2, Anna Palczewska1, Ben Jones2,3,4,5,6
1School of Built Environment, Engineering and Computing, Leeds Beckett University, Leeds, United Kingdom.
PloS one
|November 21, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的贝叶斯混合模型,用于橄球联赛预期占有价值 (EPV),该模型可以创建光滑的球场表面,并估计占有结果的概率,比以前的方法提供更灵活的见解.
科学领域:
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 橄球联盟研究研究
背景情况:
- 传统的橄球联盟分析通常依赖于区域模型.
- 现有的模型可能缺乏细粒度来捕捉微妙的空间概率.
- 需要先进的统计方法来模拟占有结果.
研究的目的:
- 为橄球联赛开发一个新的贝叶斯混合模型.
- 为了创建一个光滑的预期占有价值 (EPV) 投球面.
- 为了估计整个球场的个人占有结果概率.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年超级联赛赛季的99966个观察结果.
- 采用贝叶斯的方法,对33个定义的中心进行概率估计.
- 将概率插入到所有球场位置,并推导出一个EPV测量.
主要成果:
- 产生了一个光滑的EPV投球表面,具有特定位置的概率.
- 启用了对球队进攻和防守优势的可视化.
- 开发了一个实际与预期的球员评级系统.
结论:
- 贝叶斯混合模型为橄球联盟分析提供了比区域方法更大的灵活性.
- 该模型提供了更有洞察力的结果,可以适应其他运动.
- 这种新的方法增强了对橄球联赛中占有价值的理解.
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