南美洲的气候变化和风能潜力
1School of Engineering & Architecture & MaREI, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, College Road, Cork, Ireland.
The Science of the total environment
|November 21, 2024
概括
气候变化将对南美风能资源产生重大影响. 预计巴西和委内瑞拉的风力发电密度将大幅增加,但智利和秘鲁的风力发电密度将大幅减少,这需要气候意识的能源规划.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 可再生能源的分析.
- 环境影响评估环境影响评估
背景情况:
- 风能对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 风力发电的经济可行性取决于资源的可用性,气候变化可能会改变这些资源的可用性.
- 了解未来的风力资源演变对于可持续能源战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究南美洲风能资源的未来.
- 在各种气候变化场景下分析风力资源变化 (共享社会经济路径).
- 为气候适应风能规划提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用最新的气候变化场景 (共享社会经济路径),包括低,中,高排放.
- 开发了一组全球气候模型的多模型组合.
- 根据南美地区的历史准确性选择的模型.
主要成果:
- 预计安第斯山东地区 (巴西,巴拉圭,委内瑞拉) 的平均风力发电密度将大幅增加 (在某些地区超过100%),特别是在高排放场景下.
- 预计安第斯山脉以西的风力发电密度将大幅减少 (高达50%),影响智利南部,秘鲁和哥伦比亚西部海域.
- 强调了智利南部预计变化的重要性,该地区目前是非洲大陆风力最强的地区.
结论:
- 气候变化对南美洲部分地区的风能资源构成重大威胁.
- 即使是低排放场景也表明了相关的变化,强调了在风能规划中需要积极地适应气候变化.
- 调查结果强调了将气候变化预测纳入风能基础设施战略发展的必要性.
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