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超越路径的空间分辨率模拟年温度预测
Jonas Schwaab1,2, Mathias Hauser3, Robin D Lamboll4
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. jonasschwaab@ethz.ch.
Scientific data
|November 21, 2024
概括
全球变暖可能在本世纪暂时超过1.5°C,增加气候风险. 本研究引入了各种超越路径的局部温度预测的新数据集,有助于影响分析.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 气候行动不足使得本世纪全球变暖可能超过1.5°C.
- 暂时的温度超标带来了人们不太了解的额外的气候风险.
- 有限的地球系统模型预测阻碍了对超越路径影响的分析.
研究的目的:
- 为各种超越路径创建一个新的空间解析模拟年度温度预测数据集.
- 为了使地方和区域气候变化影响在温度超标场景下进行全面分析.
- 为了解决地球系统模型数据的稀缺性,以暂时的全球变暖超标.
主要方法:
- 使用FaIR和MESMER模拟器生成温度预测.
- 使用FaIR将十个排放场景 (七个超标) 翻译成全球平均温度.
- 使用MESMER将全球平均温度转换为随机局部年均温度场,以优化整体传播和存储.
主要成果:
- 为多个超越路径开发了一个空间解析的模拟年温度预测数据集.
- 提供了一种方法,从全球平均温度中生成大型局部温度场集.
- 评估样本量数对集体大小的灵敏度,以有效生成数据.
结论:
- 这一新型数据集有助于研究温度过高造成的当地和区域气候变化影响.
- 允许对超过关键温度值的时间和规模进行调查.
- 支持更全面地了解与临时全球变暖超标相关的气候风险.
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