对社区活跃结核病查预测模型的成本效益分析
Chih-Chi Yang1, Yun-Ju Shih1, Helen Ayles2,3
1Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Journal of global health
|November 22, 2024
概括
开发一种新的活跃结核病 (TB) 检测评分系统,大大提高了社区查的成本效益. 这种算法为寻找结核病患者提供了更有效的方法,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 发现活跃病例对于肺结核 (TB) 检测至关重要,但可能耗费大量资源.
- 需要为社区结核病查提供节省成本和高效的算法.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于艾滋病毒阳性和艾滋病毒阴性/未知人群的结核病查的预测评分模型.
- 将这些新型模型的成本效益与世界卫生组织 (WHO) 推的工具进行比较.
主要方法:
- 预测得分模型是使用来自赞比亚/南非结核病和艾滋病毒/艾滋病减少试验之前的结核病流行调查数据开发的.
- 为艾滋病毒阳性和艾滋病毒阴性/未知个体单独创建模型.
- 用平均成本效益比率 (ACER) 和增量成本效益比率来评估成本效益,并将开发的模型与世卫组织工具进行比较.
主要成果:
- 艾滋病毒阳性个体的预测模型显示,与南非参与者的世卫组织四症状查 (0.568) 相比,曲线下的区域 (AUC) (0.652) 较高.
- 对于HIV阴性/未知种群的模型也表现出卓越的性能,AUC为0.673.
- 对于开发的模型,ACER的价格在每个检测到的结核病例中从246美元到1670美元不等.
结论:
- 为发现活跃结核病例而开发的评分系统展示了卓越的性能和成本效益.
- 该系统提供了创新的策略,以有效检测结核病例,适应预算限制.
- 这些发现支持这些模型的实施,以改善结核病查计划.
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