根据风险调整的监测计算未来10年乳腺癌风险:一种方法的比较和临床实践中的应用
Silke Zachariae1, Anne S Quante2,3, Marion Kiechle2
1Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics, and Epidemiology (IMISE), Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.
Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|November 22, 2024
概括
一种新的条件概率 (CP) 方法简化了对高风险女性未来乳腺癌风险的预测. 这种基于初步评估的方法可以准确地识别女性何时超过每年查5%的门,从而改善监测策略.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 遗传学 遗传学是一种遗传学.
- 预防医学 预防医学
背景情况:
- 德国遗传性乳腺和卵巢癌联盟 (GC-HBOC) 在高风险女性中使用风险调整的监测.
- 建议每年对女性进行乳腺成像,预测10年乳腺癌风险为5%或更高,使用乳腺和卵巢疾病发病率和载体估计算法 (BOADICEA) 模型分析.
- 妇女最初低于5%的风险值,后来可能会超过它,需要更新风险评估.
研究的目的:
- 将"衰老谱系" (AP) 方法与新的"条件概率" (CP) 方法进行比较,用于预测未来的乳腺癌风险.
- 评估CP方法的实用性和准确性,以确定那些随着时间的推移将超过5%的10年乳腺癌风险值的妇女.
- 为在遗传性乳腺癌和卵巢癌监测中提供一种简化风险评估方法.
主要方法:
- 分析了6661名在GC-HBOC注册的女性的数据.
- "衰老谱系" (AP) 方法涉及每年重复BOADICEA计算,并更新家族史信息.
- "条件概率" (CP) 方法根据BOADICEA最初的评估计算了未来的风险,提供了一个简化的替代方案.
主要成果:
- 最初,在30-48岁的女性中,74%的女性的10年乳腺癌风险低于5%.
- 使用AP方法,53%的这些女性在年龄较大时超过了5%的门.
- 根据CP方法,99%的女性最初低于门,与AP相比,在相同或更早的年龄跨越了门 (88%在1年内). 已经实施了CP方法作为一个Web应用程序.
结论:
- 条件概率 (CP) 方法是预测女性未来乳腺癌风险的实用和准确方法.
- CP简化了确定女性何时跨越5%的10年乳腺癌风险值的过程,从而促进及时监测.
- 这种方法支持GC-HBOC针对风险调整的乳腺癌监测指南,增强对高风险个体的预防性护理.
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